Gaoshanzi Wind Power Project in Fuxin, northeast China's Liaoning Province. [Photo/VCG]

On September 22, 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping solemnly announced to the world at the General Debate of the 75th United Nations General Assembly: "China will scale up its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions by adopting more vigorous policies and measures. We aim to peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060." On many later occasions, President Xi made the same commitment to the global community demonstrating the determination of the Chinese government and its people to put words into action, and helped spur more vigorous international cooperation on tackling global warming. However, to put it in a rational way, fossil fuels have been society's main source of energy and a driving force for development and progress since the Industrial Revolution. How to replace our dependence on fossil fuels and gradually transition toward becoming a low-carbon society will be very challenging in the future. It is especially tough for China, since the country was a latecomer to the industrialization process and has not yet entered a post-industrial period in which energy consumption shows a downward trend, as some developed countries have. To this end, Chinese Academy of Sciences arranged for more than 100 of its academicians and experts to conduct systematic research on achieving carbon neutrality in China from technical and industrial perspectives. So far, we have obtained an overall understanding of the carbon neutrality roadmap. In this article, I will give a brief introduction to it.

I. HISTORY AND CURRENT STATUS OF CHINA'S CO2 EMISSIONS

Human beings' massive use of fossil fuels that emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere did not occur until after the Industrial Revolution. The substantial increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations is a phenomenon that has occurred over the past 100 years. China began to develop industrially in the second half of the 19th century, but due to social turbulence, industrialization was very slow. It was not until the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949 that systematic industrialization began. CO2 emissions have grown rapidly since reform and opening-up began in 1978, and especially after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.

Let's take a look at the basic information from international authoritative databases: From 1850 to 2019, the world emitted a total of 1,610 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide, of which China emitted 220 billion tons, accounting for 13.7%, far lower than China's share of the world's population; in the same period, the United States emitted 410 billion tons, accounting for more than 25%; the Group of Seven, G7, countries as a whole emitted 734 billion tons, accounting for 45.6%, with a population of less than 10% of the world's total. We have also calculated the cumulative CO2 emissions per capita from 1850 to 2019, or the sum of annual per capita emissions: 2,174 tons in the United States, 1,397 tons in G7 countries, 386 tons in the entire world, and 182 tons in China, which was only 8.4% of that of the United States, 13.0% of G7 countries, 47.2% of the global average. This shows that China's contribution to the increase in global atmospheric CO2 concentration is not high. Moreover, since China joined the WTO, it has become the "world's factory," so a considerable part of its emissions have been in the production of export products. China is by no means "the world's largest emitter" as described by some Western media. Even if we make comparisons among countries, the historical contribution of the United States to the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is far greater than that of China. If cumulative emissions per capita is used as the evaluation index, China is far below the global average. The latter calculation method may be the most reasonable one, because industrialization in different countries started at different periods, and their development levels vary in industrialization, urbanization, people's living standards and infrastructure. But all their development needed fossil energy. And it takes time. Any comparison between countries' emissions without considering population and historical conditions is meaningless.

However, we have to admit that, among the world's current annual CO2 emissions of a total of about 40 billion tons, China accounts for about a quarter, that is, about 10 billion tons. That is to say, China's annual per capita emissions have exceeded the global average. Since China's entry into the WTO, the accelerating growth of CO2 emissions is inseparable from China's leapfrog development. In the context of immature non-carbon energy technologies, it is inevitable that increased energy consumption will increase CO2 emissions.